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Passed

TR-26-0003

Premarket reversion

NQ · measured from 8:00 · decided at 9:30 · fade a 0.40% move · out at 10:15 · every weekday.

Trades709

Net, years it never saw$63,693

Coin flips ahead15 / 5,000

Score90

Longest wait for a new high: 46 months.Read the report →

Failed

TR-26-0006

Silver bullet

NQ · a three-bar gap of 2 points or more between 10:00 and 11:00 · the first close back inside it, in the gap's direction · out after 60 minutes.

Trades2,372

Net, years it never saw-$70,155

Coin flips ahead4,628 / 5,000

Score13

Longest wait for a new high: 224 months.Read the report →

Passed

TR-26-0005

Opening range breakout, Fridays

NQ · the 9:30 to 9:45 range · the first close beyond it, with the break · in by 11:30 · out at 3:30 · Fridays only.

Trades925

Net, years it never saw$76,037

Coin flips ahead46 / 5,000

Score85

Longest wait for a new high: 110 months.Read the report →

Failed

TR-26-0002

Opening range breakout

NQ · the 9:30 to 9:45 range · the first close beyond it, with the break · in by 11:30 · out at 3:30 · every weekday.

Trades4,708

Net, years it never saw-$19,979

Coin flips ahead1,716 / 5,000

Score28

Longest wait for a new high: 185 months.Read the report →

Failed

Engine run · Sep 28

The gap fill, as written

NQ · the 9:30 open against yesterday's 4:00 close · a gap under 0.4%: short a gap up, long a gap down, to the prior close · stop 0.5% · out at 4:00.

Trades2,540

Net, years it never saw$774

Coin flips ahead267 / 5,000

Score29

Longest wait for a new high: 176 months.Read the record →

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If the form doesn’t know your kind of rule, a person builds it; about a week, and you hear every question in writing first.

Passed on four markets

The morning move

Measure the move from the 8:00 AM price to 9:30. If it is 0.4% or more, trade against it at 9:30 and get out at 10:15. At most one trade a day, no stop but the clock.

Same rule, same settings on all four. They move together, so this is one bet on four screens, not four bets.

E-mini S&P 500Passed

ES

545 trades · net $45,674 · coin flips 12 / 5,000 · 55 months without a new high

89 /100

room for one contract $18,316

E-mini Nasdaq-100Passed

NQ

709 trades · net $113,297 · coin flips 15 / 5,000 · 46 months without a new high

90 /100

room for one contract $32,992

E-mini DowPassed

YM

475 trades · net $28,340 · coin flips 37 / 5,000 · 61 months without a new high

89 /100

room for one contract $15,145

E-mini Russell 2000Passed

RTY

789 trades · net $39,551 · coin flips 4 / 5,000 · 36 months without a new high

92 /100

room for one contract $14,397

Rules readers sent in

A reader’s rule, run as he wrote it and published with the rule named and the reader not.

All reader runs

TR-26-0008 · ES and NQFailed

Two tests at the VWAP band

On the form's default hours. 2,557 trades in 2 records; 4,945, 4,934 of 5,000 coin flips did as well or better on the years it never saw.

NQ 9 · ES 9 /100

TR-26-0009 · ES and GoldFailed

The same rule, on his hours

Run again on the sessions he trades and his own close rule. 2,734 trades in 4 records; 3,649, 3,232, 2,668, 1,370 of 5,000 coin flips did as well or better on the years it never saw.

ES am 9 · ES pm 9 · Gold am 9 · Gold pm 9 /100

Every setup, tested the same way

4 passed, 8 close, 112 failed, 2 that never traded. Click a cell for its record; every one is published either way.

Tested September 15, 2026. Failed means the setup as taught did no better than a coin on the years it never saw; close means it beat the coin and not by enough to live on.

Setup	ES	NQ	YM	RTY	GC	CL
The morning move	89Passed	90Passed	89Passed	92Passed	13Failed	13Failed
Last week's high or low	11Failed	47Close	21Failed	9Failed	11Failed	11Failed
Opening range breakout	13Failed	28Failed	13Failed	13Failed	13Failed	13Failed
Yesterday's high or low	30Failed	56Close	16Failed	39Failed	35Failed	14Failed
The overnight gap	13Failed	48Close	13Failed	52Close	13Failed	13Failed
Moving-average cross	11Failed	11Failed	22Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed
Distance from VWAP	16Failed	11Failed	12Failed	13Failed	11Failed	11Failed
Channel (Keltner / Bollinger)	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	14Failed	11Failed	11Failed
RSI extremes	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed
MACD cross	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed
Stochastic	9Failed	9Failed	9Failed	9Failed	9Failed	9Failed
Donchian breakout	13Failed	50Close	24Failed	13Failed	13Failed	15Failed
Supertrend flip	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed
Floor pivots	21Failed	51Close	16Failed	13Failed	31Failed	15Failed
Inside-bar breakout	13Failed	13Failed	13Failed	13Failed	13Failed	13Failed
Time of day	13Failed	9Failed	13Failed	13Failed	13Failed	13Failed
Fair-value gap (Silver Bullet)	13Failed	13Failed	30Failed	28Failed	65Close	No trades
Opening-range retest	11Failed	29Failed	11Failed	14Failed	14Failed	11Failed
VWAP reclaim	11Failed	26Failed	14Failed	11Failed	14Failed	11Failed
Swept-level fair-value gap (Silver Bullet, five steps)	11Failed	11Failed	12Failed	60Close	11Failed	No trades
RSI 30 cross	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed	11Failed

Raw market data: FirstRate Data.

What you can get here

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The Verdict

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The Shelf

The rules that passed, with the size and the dry spell.

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The Audit

Your fills against your rule: which instincts are worth money.

The verdicts

Famous setups, each one run on its own and written up in full. Click one.

All runs

TR-26-0001 · ESFailed

Bullish engulfing candle

As taught in every book. 2,853 trades over 16 years, -$58k. 25 of 25 settings negative.

16 /100

TR-26-0002 · NQFailed

Opening range breakout

4,708 trades, +$34k over 18.6 years. Against 5,000 coin flips the written rule is a coin (1,716 of 5,000 matched or beat it on the years it never saw).

28 /100

TR-26-0003 · NQPassed

Premarket reversion

709 trades, +$113k over 18.6 years. It is real and it is slow: 46 months without a new high is in the record, so size to the drought, not to the win.

90 /100

TR-26-0004 · NQFailed

Keltner channel fade

4,801 trades, -$203k over 18.6 years. Against 5,000 coin flips the written rule is a coin (3,160 of 5,000 matched or beat it on the years it never saw).

11 /100

TR-26-0005 · NQPassed

Opening range breakout, Fridays

925 trades, +$142k over 18.6 years. Patience past noon is where this rule's money has lived; before noon it paid costs for nothing.

85 /100

TR-26-0006 · NQFailed

Silver bullet

2,372 trades, -$22k over 18.6 years. Against 5,000 coin flips the written rule is a coin (4,628 of 5,000 matched or beat it on the years it never saw).

13 /100

TR-26-0007 · ESFailed

Failed breakdown

1,362 trades, -$81k over 18.6 years. The level did not hold: 75% of trades ended at the stop, where the setup says price should not go.

11 /100

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One setup, written back to you and locked before it runs
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Your broker's fills against your rule, every fill read as one contract
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